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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd